Risk assessment of the occurrence of black aspergilli on grapes grown in an alpine region under a climate change scenario

Members of the Aspergillus section Nigri, also known as black aspergilli, are responsible for the ochratoxin A (OTA) and fumonisins contamination of wine. The presence of black aspergilli in vineyards has been investigated extensively in warm climates, in which the incidence of these aspergilli on grapes and levels of OTA contamination of wines are commonly high. However, a detailed description of black aspergilli populations is needed in wine-producing cool regions to establish a baseline in view of the strengthening of temperature increase and in case of summer rainfall decrease. With this in mind, we isolated and characterized black aspergilli from grapes grown in an alpine region in Northern Italy (Trentino) during a 3-year sampling. Black aspergilli were isolated from around 10% of the grape berries and most of the isolates were classified as A. niger, A. tubingensis and A. uvarum. A. carbonarius was isolated only once. OTA production was detected only in the A. carbonarius isolate and in one A. niger. Most of A. niger isolates were able to produce fumonisins. The presence of mycotoxins biosynthesis genes was assessed in A. niger isolates. An15g07920, a polyketide synthase (PKS) gene involved in OTA biosynthesis, was detected by PCR only in the single ochratoxigenic isolate. This strong correlation was not observed for anfum1, anfum6 and anfum8, three genes included in the A. niger fumonisin biosynthesis gene cluster, which were detected in different A. niger isolates not able to produce fumonisins. Projections of mean daily temperatures and monthly rainfall indicate that the presence of black aspergilli on grapes grown in vineyards of these valleys will probably increase in the futur

ACEWATER2 Regional database: hydro-climatology data-analysis

The report presents the architecture of a regional hydro-climatology information system, developed in the framework of the ACEWATER2 project, in order to support effective organization of information. Information includes both freely available large and regional scale data sources, as well as databases compiled by the CoEs (Centers of Excellence) and submitted as part of their scientific undertakings. The information system builds upon and specializes the JRC knowledge sharing platform Aquaknow (https://aquaknow.jrc.ec.europa.eu/), including: • at the system core, a relational database; its schema has been designed to store both detailed metadata and, where relevant (avoiding duplication of information otherwise accessible), data themselves. Metadata include, among others, datasets extended description, spatial extent, temporal frequency, reference Institutions/authors, credits and limitations, web links to access original data and/or any further documentation. Data can be stored as public or private, depending upon confidentialy and sharing policies; • user friendly facilities, supporting the end user in efficiently browsing, querying, uploading and downloading information (metadata and data). System access is limited to accredited audience, via password authentication. Dedicated groups for the three ACEWATER CoE networks (Western, Southern and Central-Eastern Africa) have been setup and scientists invited to register. Currently the system is operational and we submitted databases documented and, depending upon confidentiality and authorization issues, also stored. A general review and classification of freely available information at continenal, regional and local scale of interest to ACEWATER2 project, and particularly to selected study areas (Senegal, Gambia and Niger; Zambezi; Blue Nile and Lake Victoria), have been completed. Metadata and, where relevant, data themselves have been stored to the information system database. Information submitted by the CoE (a continuous ongoing process) is migrated to the database as well, depending upon sharing authorization and/or limitations. The report also documents the ongoing scientific research at JRC on climate variability analysis based on L-Moments statistics. In particular maps of estimated precipitation deficit for different return periods at the river basins of interest are presented and included in the database.JRC.D.2-Water and Marine Resource

2018 - Drought and Water Crisis in Southern Africa

The results presented in this short technical report are focused on the 2018 Water Crisis that affected the Western Cape Province in South Africa. In one side it includes an analysis carried out by the JRC´s "Disaster Risk Management" Unit and the Global Drought Observatory (GDO report), which periodically provides an overview of precipitation patterns and its anomalies, including also those related to vegetation greenness and soil moisture values respect to the long term average. In the other, it presents a complementary section carried out by the WEFE4DEV Work Package of the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems (WEFE) Project which contributes to the online African Atlas on WEFE Cooperation. The analysis is focused on the medium to long term spatio-temporal patterns and behaviour of precipitation and temperature patterns. Both help the community to better understand the exceptional character of these phonomena, their periodicity and the scale at which these events occur. The outcomes are helpful for policymakers to identify current and future issues that impact water management, food and energy security in Africa, as well as they providevaluable information to better define mitigation measures, resilience and adaptation policies.JRC.D.2-Water and Marine Resource

COVID-19 Severity in Multiple Sclerosis: Putting Data Into Context

Background and objectives: It is unclear how multiple sclerosis (MS) affects the severity of COVID-19. The aim of this study is to compare COVID-19-related outcomes collected in an Italian cohort of patients with MS with the outcomes expected in the age- and sex-matched Italian population. Methods: Hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and death after COVID-19 diagnosis of 1,362 patients with MS were compared with the age- and sex-matched Italian population in a retrospective observational case-cohort study with population-based control. The observed vs the expected events were compared in the whole MS cohort and in different subgroups (higher risk: Expanded Disability Status Scale [EDSS] score > 3 or at least 1 comorbidity, lower risk: EDSS score ≤ 3 and no comorbidities) by the χ2 test, and the risk excess was quantified by risk ratios (RRs). Results: The risk of severe events was about twice the risk in the age- and sex-matched Italian population: RR = 2.12 for hospitalization (p < 0.001), RR = 2.19 for ICU admission (p < 0.001), and RR = 2.43 for death (p < 0.001). The excess of risk was confined to the higher-risk group (n = 553). In lower-risk patients (n = 809), the rate of events was close to that of the Italian age- and sex-matched population (RR = 1.12 for hospitalization, RR = 1.52 for ICU admission, and RR = 1.19 for death). In the lower-risk group, an increased hospitalization risk was detected in patients on anti-CD20 (RR = 3.03, p = 0.005), whereas a decrease was detected in patients on interferon (0 observed vs 4 expected events, p = 0.04). Discussion: Overall, the MS cohort had a risk of severe events that is twice the risk than the age- and sex-matched Italian population. This excess of risk is mainly explained by the EDSS score and comorbidities, whereas a residual increase of hospitalization risk was observed in patients on anti-CD20 therapies and a decrease in people on interferon

DMTs and Covid-19 severity in MS: a pooled analysis from Italy and France

We evaluated the effect of DMTs on Covid-19 severity in patients with MS, with a pooled-analysis of two large cohorts from Italy and France. The association of baseline characteristics and DMTs with Covid-19 severity was assessed by multivariate ordinal-logistic models and pooled by a fixed-effect meta-analysis. 1066 patients with MS from Italy and 721 from France were included. In the multivariate model, anti-CD20 therapies were significantly associated (OR = 2.05, 95%CI = 1.39–3.02, p < 0.001) with Covid-19 severity, whereas interferon indicated a decreased risk (OR = 0.42, 95%CI = 0.18–0.99, p = 0.047). This pooled-analysis confirms an increased risk of severe Covid-19 in patients on anti-CD20 therapies and supports the protective role of interferon